PSEi: upside potential of PSEi index at 7200 level

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PSEi: upside potential of PSEi index at 7200 level

Postby vintage_dog » Mon Nov 17, 2014 12:48 pm

care to share your thoughts?
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Re: PSEi: upside potential of PSEi index at 7200 level

Postby muypogi » Mon Nov 17, 2014 8:47 pm

Long sa market? ;)

Image

Next step of course is the all time high near 7,400 back in 2014. . .
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Re: PSEi: upside potential of PSEi index at 7200 level

Postby sumnerbrowne » Tue Nov 18, 2014 5:33 am

Some say this trend will continue for the next 5 years so now is a good time to transfer your bond and balanced funds to equities if your risk appetite can take it. Still others say, you should be indifferent to trends and just practice peso cost averaging. This is for those who don't watch the market daily, of course. Thanks.
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Re: PSEi: upside potential of PSEi index at 7200 level

Postby zenaudio » Wed Nov 19, 2014 7:29 am

5-year chart
Image

10-year chart
Image

You be the judge.
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Re: PSEi: upside potential of PSEi index at 7200 level

Postby JackD201 » Wed Nov 19, 2014 7:37 am

I trust technicals maybe just a wee bit more than tarot cards. Talk about risk averse! :lol:
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Re: PSEi: upside potential of PSEi index at 7200 level

Postby jadis » Wed Nov 19, 2014 8:03 am

I was in the market in the mid 90s, and if there's any indicator/barometer on the when to get in and out, it's this - Everytime I buy, the market goes down, everytime I sell, the market goes up. I dunno why, but it happened on 3 cycles already. Kaya nag plaka na lang ako. OWN na, wala pang ulcer. :D :D
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Re: PSEi: upside potential of PSEi index at 7200 level

Postby zenaudio » Wed Nov 19, 2014 7:56 pm

:D Jack, I heard some people swear by TA, but I'm a "fundamentalist" myself, my current favorites are dividend-payers. ;) Different ways to make money in the stuck market.. I mean, stock market. One thing I noticed though is that money invested in an index fund 5 years ago would have probably more than doubled by now and one placed 10 years ago would have probably tripled. :)

Jadis, I also noticed that my LPs have been my best investments, ROI-wise. The ones I bought from boytoy and recordmogul 5 years ago have more than doubled in price, judging from the latest Hi-Fi show and even in the vinyl traps... I mean, vinyl swaps. :D
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Re: PSEi: upside potential of PSEi index at 7200 level

Postby Superman » Wed Nov 19, 2014 8:24 pm

zenaudio wrote:Jadis, I also noticed that my LPs have been my best investments, ROI-wise. The ones I bought from boytoy and recordmogul 5 years ago have more than doubled in price, judging from the latest Hi-Fi show and even in the vinyl traps... I mean, vinyl swaps. :D


Boss Nes, thanks for sharing! I learned something new today about basic investment! :clap: :clap: :clap:
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Re: PSEi: upside potential of PSEi index at 7200 level

Postby jadis » Wed Nov 19, 2014 9:18 pm

And you know why the index hit 7000? Because I wasn't in there. :D :D

I was in there when it was toying at peaks of 3000+ and if I remember correctly, the 1997 property glut in Thailand came, and the Asian currency crises followed, and the crash of the markets worldwide ensued as well. I was out of the country then, and when I returned home, saw the local papers and my stocks were like fraction of my buying price. :( So, 'stuck market' applies here well, Nes. :lol:

I'm not technically adept at charts of analysis but in my observation, the market is as good as the next crash. And it's like earthquake and tsunami, hard to predict.
And when a major crash happens, people tell me that that's the best time to buy. But I never did. My gut is not that strong. I just stock up on Clair Marlo LPs na lang. :lol:
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Re: PSEi: upside potential of PSEi index at 7200 level

Postby sumnerbrowne » Thu Nov 20, 2014 5:15 am

jadis wrote:And you know why the index hit 7000? Because I wasn't in there. :D :D

I was in there when it was toying at peaks of 3000+ and if I remember correctly, the 1997 property glut in Thailand came, and the Asian currency crises followed, and the crash of the markets worldwide ensued as well. I was out of the country then, and when I returned home, saw the local papers and my stocks were like fraction of my buying price. :( So, 'stuck market' applies here well, Nes. :lol:

I'm not technically adept at charts of analysis but in my observation, the market is as good as the next crash. And it's like earthquake and tsunami, hard to predict.
And when a major crash happens, people tell me that that's the best time to buy. But I never did. My gut is not that strong. I just stock up on Clair Marlo LPs na lang. :lol:


Cool! Philip,are you about to let go of a Clair Marlo anytime soon?
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Re: PSEi: upside potential of PSEi index at 7200 level

Postby jadis » Thu Nov 20, 2014 6:49 am

sumnerbrowne wrote:
jadis wrote:And you know why the index hit 7000? Because I wasn't in there. :D :D

I was in there when it was toying at peaks of 3000+ and if I remember correctly, the 1997 property glut in Thailand came, and the Asian currency crises followed, and the crash of the markets worldwide ensued as well. I was out of the country then, and when I returned home, saw the local papers and my stocks were like fraction of my buying price. :( So, 'stuck market' applies here well, Nes. :lol:

I'm not technically adept at charts of analysis but in my observation, the market is as good as the next crash. And it's like earthquake and tsunami, hard to predict.
And when a major crash happens, people tell me that that's the best time to buy. But I never did. My gut is not that strong. I just stock up on Clair Marlo LPs na lang. :lol:


Cool! Philip,are you about to let go of a Clair Marlo anytime soon?


Von,

The title is quite ominous (sometimes in the stock market there are tell-tale ominous signs as well but this hapless chap couldn't tell) :lol: that the title is 'Let It Go', so I let go about 7 copies already in the last few years, and all I got is my 'own'. Funny too, I let go of my stocks too many moons ago. :D
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Re: PSEi: upside potential of PSEi index at 7200 level

Postby JackD201 » Thu Nov 20, 2014 7:43 am

Nes, I should have bought up all the Tele 803s left 3 years ago. Wala nang mabili! :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Phil, a long time ago I bought a stock that crashed. When I was asked if I wanted to sell it I said, iwan mo lang. In my mind I wrote it off. Lo' and behold. Bumalik din sa presyo 8 years later :D I guess number one rule is, don't panic. That is unless you think the company itself is going to shut down! Lahat naman ng negosyo sugal. :)

As far as stocks go, my portfolio is tiny. I call it my "baka makatsamba fund". Pioneer markets: Eastern Europe and Africa, telecom and energy. Again in my mind write off kasi kalaban dito government regulatory policies (stability or lack thereof) but hoping 10 or even 20 years from now, para akong nakabili ng PLDT nung 1983!
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Re: PSEi: upside potential of PSEi index at 7200 level

Postby kabubi » Thu Nov 20, 2014 7:56 am

jadis wrote:And when a major crash happens, people tell me that that's the best time to buy. But I never did. My gut is not that strong. I just stock up on Clair Marlo LPs na lang. :lol:


Clair Marlo has only one advice as far as your stocks go: Let it Go.
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Re: PSEi: upside potential of PSEi index at 7200 level

Postby jadis » Thu Nov 20, 2014 8:01 am

JackD201 wrote:
Phil, a long time ago I bought a stock that crashed. When I was asked if I wanted to sell it I said, iwan mo lang. In my mind I wrote it off. Lo' and behold. Bumalik din sa presyo 8 years later :D I guess number one rule is, don't panic. That is unless you think the company itself is going to shut down! Lahat naman ng negosyo sugal. :)


That's the right attitude, Jack. I guess in the stock market, you gotta have the right attitude. My banker friend who is a fund manager told me long ago, dapat may sikmura ka. Question is, can that 'sikmura' be developed or intrinsic? I believe I'm intrinsically weak. :D It's the psychology of hating the feeling. :D Nakakainis, as they say. Each day, each week, each year. How many years. Again, that's the attitude. How soon can we forget it and write it off. Some say cut loss and move on to other stocks. And I believe you, bumabalik sa dating presyo din after a decade. It happened to me. Blue chip property stock, I got for p11. after a crash, it hit p4.80. Lingered there for the longest time. Di ko na ma take. When it hit p5.80 I sold them all. It lingered there for a few years, but after like 5 or 6 years it not only went back to p11, it hit p15!!! Bang my head time. :@ :@ :D The last few years I was tempted to buy some blue chips again, but something was stopping me. And that's why I'm telling you, the PSE went up to 7000+, I was not there. :D :D
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Re: PSEi: upside potential of PSEi index at 7200 level

Postby jadis » Thu Nov 20, 2014 8:12 am

And here is a true story. A few friends in audio were playing the stock market before me. One was providing tips, and another followed with the intention of using the money made from a stock rise to buy the top of the line XLO cables which were $$$$$. After a while, I asked him what happened, as he said, kable lang ng sampayan na lang ang mabibili niya. Bumagsak ang stocks niya. :lol:
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Re: PSEi: upside potential of PSEi index at 7200 level

Postby zenaudio » Thu Nov 20, 2014 8:22 am

Jadis, better stay out for the sake of those who are still in there, baka umabot pa ng 8,000 index. :D

Jack, you're right, I think the next audio-related investment opportunity is vacuum tubes. Kaya every time I go to Singapore namimili ako pakonti konti, kahit Russian tubes. They are just branded using classic brand names bought by New Sensor but are all produced in one factory in Ukraine.
http://jacmusic.com/Sovtek/index.html

Lintek na Putin yan, pag nagkagulo doon, patay ang global supply ng tubes and we will be stuck with the Chinese! :tmi: :)
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Re: PSEi: upside potential of PSEi index at 7200 level

Postby sumnerbrowne » Thu Nov 20, 2014 8:54 am

jadis wrote:
sumnerbrowne wrote:
jadis wrote:And you know why the index hit 7000? Because I wasn't in there. :D :D

I was in there when it was toying at peaks of 3000+ and if I remember correctly, the 1997 property glut in Thailand came, and the Asian currency crises followed, and the crash of the markets worldwide ensued as well. I was out of the country then, and when I returned home, saw the local papers and my stocks were like fraction of my buying price. :( So, 'stuck market' applies here well, Nes. :lol:

I'm not technically adept at charts of analysis but in my observation, the market is as good as the next crash. And it's like earthquake and tsunami, hard to predict.
And when a major crash happens, people tell me that that's the best time to buy. But I never did. My gut is not that strong. I just stock up on Clair Marlo LPs na lang. :lol:


Cool! Philip,are you about to let go of a Clair Marlo anytime soon?


Von,

The title is quite ominous (sometimes in the stock market there are tell-tale ominous signs as well but this hapless chap couldn't tell) :lol: that the title is 'Let It Go', so I let go about 7 copies already in the last few years, and all I got is my 'own'. Funny too, I let go of my stocks too many moons ago. :D


Too bad I wasn't ready for Clair at that time, Philip. I am now. So I guess I will do a separate peso cost averaging when another stock allows you to let one go. :-)
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Re: PSEi: upside potential of PSEi index at 7200 level

Postby dimfer » Thu Nov 20, 2014 10:01 am

I put all my money (not much) on 3 pairs of NOS Tungsol round plate 6SN7's when they were selling for $300/pair, but took a pass on mint Clair Marlo & Pig's Eye Jass lp's when they were only $500.. so I don't know if I am a wise investor or not :@

seems like the indexes are currently pointing upwards.. I took a bath when the tech stocks plummeted because our (Pinoy) financial advisor at the time was too lazy to lift a finger to jump (I knew it was about to happen) and has lost interest in this game since.

The very last time we did it, me and my wife invested $13k at the same time (Feb), in two very different portfolios, by the end of the same year, kalahati na lang ang natitira nung sa akin, after a few more months, konti na lang. I totally lost interest..ngayon di ko na alam kung may natitira pa.

Then I got into audio...
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Re: PSEi: upside potential of PSEi index at 7200 level

Postby jadis » Thu Nov 20, 2014 10:11 am

zenaudio wrote:Jadis, better stay out for the sake of those who are still in there, baka umabot pa ng 8,000 index. :D



Yes, Nes. For the sake of the upbeat/bullish community here, I will stay away. :) I've stayed away for a decade now and it's not likely I'll be entering the fray at record levels. I didn't enter at record low levels either. So in short, I am not entering. :D I'm into relaxing things nowadays. :lol:
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Re: PSEi: upside potential of PSEi index at 7200 level

Postby sumnerbrowne » Thu Nov 20, 2014 10:54 am

I wonder what you guys think of getting into mutual funds. With mutual funds, your risk is addressed via diversification. You also don't need to monitor the market daily as your portfolio manager will be the one to do the worrying for you. The variety of mutual funds out there also get to address all types of risk appetite.
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